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| McCain’s ousider status
became an effective metaphor for independents’ own role in the New
Hampshire vote. |
NEW HAMPSHIRE independents showed themselves to be slightly younger,
more moderate and more concerned about personal integrity than other
voters, but otherwise they looked very much like registered Democrats and
Republicans, exit polls showed. But since they could choose their primary,
they had an unusual degree of power in the election. On the Republican side, where a significant independent vote — some 41 percent of voters — helped boost McCain to an 18-point victory, the independents had these traits: .gif){kind=small} They tended to be a bit younger: 52 percent were under
age 45, while only 40 percent of Republican voters were under 45. They were more ideologically temperate. Sixty-one
percent said they were moderate or liberal, while only 41 percent of GOP
voters described themselves as such. On issues, they were focused along the same lines as
registered Republicans, targeting moral values, taxes and world affairs.
The only issue they seemed more concerned about was campaign finance
reform, McCain’s core issue. They tended to be a bit less staunch about
abortion, but 40 percent still said it should always or mostly be
illegal. When it came to seeking out qualities in a candidate,
they were somewhat more likely to seek out someone “who stands up for
their beliefs,” rather than looking for a strong and decisive
leader. They were slightly more likely to have made their choice
within the past week.These traits and the size of the turnout help put McCain’s victory in context. While he focused almost all his energies on New Hampshire, the past week was significant for the Republican candidates. McCain was in fine form — energized, jocular and spirited. Bush appeared energized as well, but recent appearances with his parents, former President George Bush and Barbara Bush, may have misfired among an electorate that generally did not let the junior Bush’s lineage affect their votes. |
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Moreover, McCain’s patchwork conservatism — often tinged with a healthy dose of centrism — may have been more appealing to the largely moderate independent bloc than Bush’s soft-edged conservatism. LAST-MINUTE DECISIONS ON DEMOCRATS A similar story could be told on the Democratic side, where some 40 percent of voters were independents. As with McCain, independents seemed to warm to Bradley’s outsider status. But again, independents voting Democratic weren’t vastly different from registered Democrats, save for their last-minute decision about who they would vote for. As many on the Democratic side were under age 45 — 52
percent — as on the Republican side. But those under 30 comprised a
greater share of their Democratic vote than in the GOP primary. They tended to be slightly more moderate than the
average registered Democrat who voted. While they were evenly split
between voting based on issues or on a candidate’s personal qualities,
they skewed more toward personality than registered Democrats did. As with independents on the Republican side, those who
voted Democratic also sought out a candidate with strong personal
convictions. Far more independents than registered Democrats made
their choice of candidate within the past week. But far more important to
them than to the average Democrat was to seek out someone who was “not a
typical politician.” Among Bradley’s strengths in casting himself against the vice president was to mold an outsider’s role for himself. The vice president attempted to turn that back on Bradley by reminding voters that he was “somebody who’s willing to fight for them, not just theorize about them,” a reference to the New Jersey senator’s retirement from Capitol Hill in 1996 and subsequent academic career. However, Bradley’s stance as an alternate to the national party’s anointed choice seemed to play well among independents. His attempt to gather momentum in the past week — and to unleash new TV ads on state voters — likely helped capture the significant number of independents, about 57 percent, who were undecided until this week. THE ROAD AHEAD What is less clear is whether independents will continue to play a major role in the campaign. The Republican hopefuls have just over two weeks to make their bid for votes before primaries in South Carolina, Arizona and Michigan will test whether McCain can hold his momentum and ferret out more maverick voters. He has a probable home-turf advantage in Arizona, where voters are somewhat inclined toward political non-conformity. But South Carolina comes first on February 19 and its comparatively entrenched party system will be a difficult hurdle for McCain to clear. McCain has narrowed the gap against Bush there, down to 51 percent to 29 percent in a recent Palmetto Poll by Clemson University. However, even though South Carolina has an open primary — registered voters can participate in either party’s contest — the anti-establishment sentiment that predominated in New Hampshire is hardly as prevalent there. “The independent voter, to my way of thinking, is not the bedrock conservative voter for which the Republican party would be the alternative,” said Dr. Blease Graham, a political scientist at the University of South Carolina. “It would be the educated voter who probably goes in relatively higher income categories, who is a swing voter, that in this primary is really going to oscillate between Republican candidates.” |
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| McCain may win a crossover
vote from South Carolina Democrats who choose not to vote in the
insignificant Democratic caucuses March 9. |
But, Graham noted, those more moderate voters may be drawn to Bush’s
“compassionate conservatism,” while McCain’s patriotic, outsider image may
resonate with more hard-core conservatives. “That invades the same small
town, moderate, independent base that’s what they refer to as ‘Bush
country’ down here,” he said. SOCIAL ISSUES PREDOMINATE Where McCain could run into difficulty is with his moderate stands on social issues, especially abortion. On the whole, South Carolina is conservative even among conservative states and Republicans there are especially polarized. “Social issues cut a lot of mustard down here,” said Dave Woodard of Clemson University, who co-directs the Palmetto Poll. “On the social issues, you can’t run to the right of Bush.” If anything, Woodard predicted, McCain may win a crossover vote from Democrats who choose not to vote in the insignificant Democratic caucuses March 9. “If you’re a Democrat,” said Woodard, a Republican, “there’s no reason to hang around for March 9, but you can go over and make whoopee on February 19.” Bradley and Gore will get a longer rest than the Republicans, but their next contest March 7 will be the first of two “Super Tuesdays” this year and include the delegate mother lodes of California and New York, with 610 delegates combined. Unlike previous years, 28 states and Puerto Rico have bundled their primaries into a single eight-day period in March, after which two-thirds of the delegates will have been selected and the presidential race will throttle back. New York could be one major battleground, as its strong state Democratic Party structure will help Gore and Bradley’s familiarity — to downstate New Yorkers, at least — will offer him a boost. But New York’s primary will be limited to registered Democrats, leaving independents out of the voting. NBC News political analyst Larry Hugick contributed to this report. |
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